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Broadband and Convergence have quietly brought about a paradigm shift in the telecom and entertainment industry. Traditional Cable Companies were unchallenged in what they did best - provide TV and Video content, while the bread and butter of Telecom Operators was Voice. Broadband-to-home saw the Cable Companies jump into the data wagon, with their ability to deliver data at higher speeds compared to that of Telcos, who were straddled with old copper and not so efficient DSL technology. Then Voice Over IP allowed Cable Companies to add the third piece in the bundle and truly threaten the Telcos.
Now, Telcos are trying their best to storm the bastion of Cable Companies. Development in DSL standards are increasing delivery speeds rapidly. ADSL2, adopted by ITU in July 2002, is capable of delivering up to 12Mbps of bandwidth and ADSL2+ (January 2003) doubles that to 24Mbps, albeit in shorter distances than the traditional DSL. Complemented by 'fiber to the kerb', this can be the answer that the Telcos are looking for.
Another VOIP is now coming to the Telco's rescue - Video Over IP! Again, new compression standards are emerging that will make video streaming on IP more effective. MPEG4 can deliver video streams at less than 2Mbps. Proprietary technologies allow Real Networks and Window Media Players to do so at 1Mbps. However, just like Voice Over IP is not as efficient as carrier grade voice, these streaming techniques also will not be as efficient as a HiDensity video. But they will provide the Telcos the ability to provide TV on demand. Technologies have not yet reached a stage where they can provide it in broadcast mode. And the eternal question remains: what will the viewer prefer. The TV or the PC! The real battle for eyeballs may have begun.
The emerging trends in convergence and broadband have an Orwellian ring about them. As time goes by, the dividing line between the two diverse players will become thin. The Cablecos and the Telcos will vie with each other to offer the best and cheapest bundle of Voice, Video and Data. In Animal Farm, the final scene saw the identity of the main players merging, and it was difficult to say which was which. In time to come, it may be also difficult to distinguish Cablecos from Telcos.
That time, I think is a bit far away. However unlike "Animal Farm", when convergence becomes a reality, consumers will be the ultimate winners.
Rahul Swarup
President
Sify Enterprise Solution
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